Day Zero
I’m tired.
10,178
I have delayed writing this hopefully short rant for a while. I have lacked the energy or will to put down how incessantly tired I have become of arguing over the table scraps. It’s been a struggle to put this together into anything more than just random ramblings of one topic to the next. And I’m not here to rehash the great Reds Twitter Civil War of 2023 or bash people who think a certain way. But I think I will start with this; the point of sports is to win championships and we are fans of a sports team to watch and support them as they win championships. That’s the equation. That’s the deal. But it doesn’t seem to be the case in Cincinanti for the Reds. It seems that this unexpected Reds season has really just turned into a marketing campaign for the rebranded “peaks and valleys” message of “sustainability”.
"For us, it's really hard to give up players that we feel are going to be here long term when you're trying to build a sustainable roster."
"I don't think we need to sit, though. If there's something we can do, I want to make sure we're leaving no stone unturned, but at the same time … I want to make sure that we're building this for sustainability, not just for a one-year playoff run."
"We have to do what’s best for our organization and what’s best for us. We’ve got a team that’s been able to win some games so far this year, and we just need to keep playing hard and doing well."
"We're in first place, we're looking to win. That's our goal. So, I think we want to do whatever we can for this team."
The above are all quotes from Nick Krall as the Reds headed into the trade deadline where they famously did almost nothing. I’m sure many will point to this as some kind of declaration of winning but to me it seems that winning is never something beyond a general statement… a hope. It’s nearly impossible to find any declaration of winning the division or having a World Series appearance being the long-term or short-term goal of this organization. To me this is intentional as it’s all about framing the messaging to fans as a means to condition fans. That just being in the race is the accomplishment. After all, why set actual goals when it could potentially lead to some accountability.
I’m sure this next little bit will result in some of you actively disagreeing or thinking it’s wildly off base. That’s fine… I have a firm no block/no mute rule on Twitter. Come yell at me there.
This is an ownership group that is not serious about winning a championship, and in my opinion doesn’t care about winning a championship. The long ago declaration that the Reds are no longer going to lose has faded as the children of the majority owner have taken on a more prominent role in the organization. They care more about the illusion of winning. The ability to point within the division to the Pirates as proof it could be worse certainly help their argument. I will concede that they do somewhat care about winning, but only if it can be done cheaply. The main purpose of this organization is to be a financial gold mine and fulfilling the promise to fans of winning a championship is considerably further down the list. Let’s not forget that before this unexpected season the COO went in front of a group of fans to explain via a factually inaccurate PowerPoint presentation that the Reds are out of contention before any season ever begins. The starting argument from ownership is that failure should be expected.
We are all the marks. We are all the suckers. If you don’t agree, then ask yourself how many times you have heard the term “financial flexibility” thrown around by the Reds front office. How many times have they actually gone on to spend that money? After so much inaction, shouldn’t there big a large pool of money available to spend by now? Oh wait… never mind just more profits to count! It’s a team that willingly didn’t roster a MLB caliber 4th or 5th starter heading into this season. It kept sending Luke Weaver out there every 5th day despite perhaps being the worst starting pitching in Reds history. They practically broadcasted they had no interest in trading for any players they wouldn’t have multiple years of control despite there being “rental” deals completed that wouldn’t have cracked the Reds top 10 of prospects. They won’t be engaged in serious free agency in the future as you continually hear a message of the Reds having to “build from within”. Granted they will find a way to light $10M on fire with has been players in an attempt to avoid engaging in free agency to seriously address their needs. Krall goes on TV and talks about how hard they worked with 100-200 text messages at the deadline and then you read how the Phillies had more than that for just one deal. When faced with being in first place on August 1st for the first time in over a decade the Reds did nothing and expected zero blowback. After all, the fans should just feel fortunate to even be in this position to start with. I could continue for another 500 words on examples of the unserious nature of this front office and ownership group, but I will save you from reading more than needed.
If you add up the actions and the words of the Reds front office, then I’m left with one conclusion. They plan to continually field a team that is almost entirely constructed of players who make the league minimum or are still in arbitration. The lone exception will be those cheap veteran players they sign to one-year deals hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. When a player reaches that 2nd to last or last year of arbitration, if they have any value, they will be traded away in hopes of restocking the farm system. I do not expect them to be handing out contracts to retain players for all or most of their careers and most likely not even to age 30. Essentially, don’t get your hopes up of seeing someone like Elly De La Cruz on the Reds for his entire career… that just isn’t sustainable. You may point to the Hunter Greene deal as evidence against that but all I see is 40% of the full contract value residing in the final year of the deal. That final year is a club-controlled option with a 2M buyout. Either Hunter Greene ends up not performing and the 2M buyout occurs (and it essentially becomes a 53M deal instead of 72M) or he is easily going into the final year of his contact obviously worth that price and so the Reds are “smart” to move him to a club that doesn’t mind the price tag of his final year. This contract is staged for that argument because the spin will be that it’s not sustainable for the Reds to spend significant money on players. You may argue that this mindset is smart, but smart for who? It’s definitely smart for rich owners counting the millions added to the evaluation of franchise year over year. In my opinion, the goal of the owners is to have a young cheap team that isn’t bad but also isn’t great. Their ideal situation is a year like this season where the Reds are in the chase, they can tell the fans that filling up the ballpark gives the front office options, and then just hope things fall their way to make the playoffs without risking any real future assets. This is my understanding of this franchise, and it will remain so until proven otherwise. A sustained illusion of winning.
Perhaps they prove me wrong. I actually look forward to that occurring. There is really no excuse for not trading away some prospects this upcoming offseason to solidify the Reds as a playoff team in 2024. They have a plethora of prospects and several of them are blocked at the MLB level for years to come. I can even understand the argument of waiting for better deals in the offseason, but I’m at the stage where the front office has to prove they will do what is needed to win before I can give them credit and trust them moving forward. I simply do not trust this ownership group or front office yet. Krall has done well at acquiring talent, but he has yet to make the trades from the other side when having a stacked farm system to deal from. I also think it’s very unwise to continue to expect the Reds to have such a high success rate with the prospect they call up. I would expect some regression to the mean moving forward when other prospects join the Reds. Far too many treat these prospect rankings as sure things, which is a dangerous game to play. I mean even someone who performs great as a rookie may not be any better than league average a couple of years later (I am not at all referring to Jonathan India… nope… no chance). The league adjusts and sometimes the player can’t adjust back. The Reds know this, but I fear rather than remotely attempt at improving their obvious playoff chances in 2023 they chose to hedge their bets for the future by maximizing the size and sustainability of their prospect talent pool.
Ten thousand, one hundred seventy-eight
I’m in my early 40s and in my entire life the Reds have played in a total of 8 postseason series* (90 NLCS, 90 WS, 95 NLDS, 95 NLCS, 2010 NLDS, 2012 NLDS, 2013 WC*, 2020 WCS). They have won just 3 of those postseason series in over 40 years. The Reds have been in 1st place on August 1st just seven times (87, 90, 92, 94, 95, 2012, 2023) in my lifetime. So, despite what many would say this season is a rarity. They have not advanced in the postseason since October 6th, 1995. I wrote this on August 18th, 2023 and it has been 10,178 days since the Reds advanced against the Dodger in the 1995 NLDS. Ten thousand, one hundred seventy-eight days since they accomplished the minimal achievement in fulfilling the promise of a sports team to their fans by moving closer to winning a championship. Making the playoffs is the threshold level you should expect from a team. Advancing in the playoffs is the gift of actual hope that a championship may indeed happen, and that this is the year!
I look forward to when the days on this counter roll to zero. I just don’t ever really see that happen with the current owners of my favorite sports team. If they aren’t going to be serious about winning, then why should I be serious as a fan? This is the biggest change for me over the past several years. I can spend my time and focus elsewhere. I mostly follow games via social media and here or there catch the last couple innings of a game. Call me a bad fan. Tell me I don’t understand. Tell me I should just be happy the Reds aren’t horrible this season. Tell me this year was never about winning. Whatever.
10,178 days
244,272 hours
14,656,320 minutes
879,379,200 seconds
I’m just too damn tired.
Too Long. Don’t Care.
I guess when you are as rich as the Castellinis, it somehow takes less energy to play the long game. They’re not tired of anything. Good read, Woo. Thorough.
Fantastic!