Occam's Reds
Opening Day is upon us and perhaps this is the biggest for the Reds in 3 years. Not necessarily for what we will see on the field, although I will get to that in a bit, but for the owners to ideally let Reds fan have one day of bliss and hope. The past two seasons have seen the Reds COO stroll in front a microphone and verbally crap all over whatever good vibes Reds fans had heading into Opening Day. In 2021 there was comments about the Reds finances being a trainwreck, which obviously was a strong signal of their intentions that dashed any hopes from your soul. That was followed with the infamous “Where you gonna go?” moment on Opening Day 2022. Who would have imagined a thinly veiled threat that the team will be moved would lead to one ugly year and perhaps the lowest fan interest in the history of the current ownership. And so, I’m left wondering if the Reds can show some professional control and give fans the Opening Day they deserve. I will certainly be interested to see who the Reds have speaking to the public throughout the activities on Opening Day. I do hope a certain someone isn’t permitted within 100 feet of a microphone and ideally there is a strong focus by ownership on trying to amend for the past few seasons. It would be an organizational failure for ownership, or the front office, to make any type of headlines before the first pitch of the season. Hopefully this can be achieved while answering some legitimate questions about the current and future state of the franchise… or perhaps they will just have an iron clad lockdown on all questions they are asked. I just beg them to let the fans have this day because it’s needed.
There is hope out there for this Reds team. And not the typical kind of Reds hope where they picked up some journeyman for a key role and they’re hoping he can outplay Father Time and be used in a strawman argument that ownership actually tried during the offseason. The prospect of the future is what we will be watching this season more than the actual wins and losses. The final results for this team could be all over the map depending upon injuries and if some of these young men take the next step in their careers. Also, hopefully by mid to late season we have some very talented prospects joining the team. Ideally the Reds move beyond the whole “you have to earn it” cliché and give these young players every day starts. This is also where the Reds would move into the most volatile part of their season in terms of wins and losses.
If the Reds have less than 90 losses (72+ wins) then this is going to be an amazing season where a ton went right for the team. However, if injuries hit and some players don’t quite take a step forward this season then I can see 100 losses being possible yet again… although I consider this the least likely result. I think the most likely outcome is around the 66-71 wins.
A quick breakdown of my general thoughts on each section of the team:
The starting rotation is a Lamborghini pulling a rusted-out Airstream camper with a flat tire. The back end of the rotation is going to be pulling this team down all season and if any of the big 3 go out for an extended or combined period of time then things will get ugly very fast.
The bullpen… It exists and may very well be a dumpster fire personified in human form. Maybe some good randomness happens. At least saves can be a stat some can get excited about as the backend has All-Star potential.
The offense has plenty of potential heading into the season. Some solid rebound/healthy seasons from India and Stephenson are needed, we hopefully learn Barrero can hit, plus the young players on the horizon that should be joining the team at some point this season pack some offensive talent. Also, maybe that Votto guy defies logic but I’m not bullish on that sentiment.
The Reds probably won’t break 70 wins but they will be 90 wins worth of interesting. This is my view of the season, and it greatly differs from the majority of seasons during the past decade. Fans will tune in for the young players already on the major league team and hopefully watch them take that next step in development. Then in the back half of the season, you will be excited to see some impressive prospects join the team for their first cup of coffee. It’s truly a transition season for the Reds and one that led me to think a lot about the Reds future. The more I look at the landscape of this team, and the front office, the more I’m convinced the next 18 months is going to tell us everything about ownerships intentions. And wouldn’t you know… Nick Krall participated in an interview this week that touched on this exact topic and I wanted to break down my thoughts of that interview.
The full interview is available here but I’m going to highlight the questions and answers about the future of this team that stuck out.
Does planning start with looking at the vision for five years from now, or does it start with what you have now shaping your long-term vision?
It does start right now. The overall theme of what we want to do is build from within.
If we have a good player pipeline year after year and continue to produce talent for the major league level, our big league clubs will continue to be good. That’s how we get sustained success. That’s what it starts with. We want to know what we’re pointing to. Our end goal is sustained success. We want to be successful year in and year out, and that starts with a successful farm system.
So here we are with a classic Reds front office moment. Presented with the chance to lay out actual goals to the fans they pivot to their generalities. Because you know, God forbid you want to build a winning culture of accountability. However, what did really stick out to me is Krall yet again highlighting the ongoing pipeline of talent. A sustained and ongoing flow of prospects moving up to the major league club. But how exactly is that accomplished? Let’s just put a pin in that line of thinking until we hit a couple questions later…
On the major league side, there has been a ton of roster turnover over the last four seasons. Is the goal to have less roster turnover going forward?
Yes. I’d love to have players that are on our club and continue on our club. We made some trades over the last couple of years, we’ve had some free agents not come back for one reason or another. We’re continuing to build through our farm system. We can have these young players who can come up through our system and be on our major league team, that’s what we’re trying to do.
Talk about a coded and loaded response. You can argue this is me reading tea leaves, but the first portion of Krall’s answer screams that he doesn’t expect to retain players that require a tangible financial commitment. The reason is that Krall directly follows this up with his laughable statement on why the Reds were unable to retain players. He would love to keep them though. I mean who doesn’t want talented experienced players on their roster… just can they be cheap? Krall’s response ends with explicitly stating their plan is a stream of young talent moving up to the major league team. Yet again… what does that logistically mean?
This spring, some standout young players across MLB have been given contract extensions. What’s your philosophy on giving contract extensions to young players?
We take it one person at a time. Is there a match here? Is there something we can do? We explore every option, and what that option is, whether it’s long-term or short-term, we should have conversations about every option for what we can and can’t do. I don’t have a strict philosophy that we’d do this here and here. It’s individual by individual.
And here is where it all ties together. We have repeated mentions of their entire goal being a steady movement of talent from the minors to the majors. So, what happens when that talent becomes an experienced member of the Reds? Look around the league and you see plenty of teams buying out a few years of arbitration and free agency to lock up their top talent into their year age 30+ season. Krall and the Reds have a chance to tell the fans “Yes. Our goal is to sign our top talented young players to contract extensions to keep them a Red for many years. Hopefully we can achieve this goal.” Instead, we are presented with this non-answer that peaking through the tea leaves seems to be more of “No we don’t plan to hand out those kinds of contracts but if a player is willing to sign for cheap, we will definitely be open to it".
You add this all together and what kind of future are we looking at with the Reds? One where there is a steady diet of prospects being brought up to the major league team. That is exciting… no doubt. But how is that maintained and accomplished? They are basically screaming they have no intentions in signing significant free agents and seem to be against committing to significant, but not outrageous, contracts to lock up young player. So, are they expecting to never miss on the draft? I think the most obvious outcome is that these young players are traded off with 1 or 2 years of arbitration left so the Reds can restock the farm system. Just a steady diet of Luis Castillo type trades which result in hauls that prospect lovers can gush over. But even then, you aren’t going to hit on all your prospects. You need a volume of prospects to solidify the ability to remain “competitive” at the major league level. So outside of a role player who can be retained at minimal financial commitment, the Reds are left needing to move everyone else to maximize their ability to deliver on prospect development. This would be different from what fans experienced a season ago where a massive sell off occurred all at once and instead is done in increments, season by season. A staggered promotion of talent to the majors allows a staggered release to replace them and, in ownership’s mind, would minimize fan backlash.
And this is where I don’t like where this plan is heading. You can claim it’s “smart” or believe the COO’s comments about how the Reds have no chance to keep young talent, but this is just bad for the general state of baseball in Cincinnati or elsewhere. From a generational perspective how do you keep fans engaged if nearly every talented player is traded away or leaves to free agency in the midst of their peak years? But even more importantly how can you ever hope to build a true World Series contending team if you have no plans to engage in free agency and realistic contract extensions? No matter how well they draft or hit on prospect acquisition, a team will have holes that need addressed or a bench that needs improved if ownership is actually interested in winning a World Series. Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland are teams that have had success with this kind of model at times. They also are consistent basement dwellers in terms of fan attendance. Cleveland has closed off entire portions of their upper deck because fans just weren’t showing up. The apathy of Reds fans is arguably at one of its lowest points in my lifetime. I fear it could get worse. Recently, both Cleveland and Tampa have realized the need to sign core talent to extended contracts. I hope that isn’t lost on the Reds.
It’s the responsibility of ownership to build towards winning a championship. Sports teams exist because of their fans and winning is what is owed to the fans, not to have a nice balance sheet that’s always hidden away from the fan’s eyes. This entire plan feels like a cheap way at having a shot at making the playoff a couple times a decade and just hoping luck falls their way. Minimize all financial risk. Play it safe…. And hope. Then throw your hands in the air and declare the whole system is setup in a way that you never had a chance to consistently succeed.
With this mindset the Reds have the next 18 months to prove me wrong. If we head into Opening Day in 2025 and the Reds have not locked a single young player up through age 30 then I don’t know how else to explain ownerships decisions. I know it takes two to sign a deal, but this must be a priority for the Reds. Signing the young stars to these significant deals sends a message that you serious about winning during their careers. It sends a message to other players outside of the org as well, just in case you happen to ever want to sign a free agent. Now this is taking for granted that these players stay healthy and continue to improve their production but India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft will ideally be candidates for contract extensions and if none of them are worthy of an extension then this Reds rebuild is in a world of hurt. And then just imagine if Elly De La Cruz ends up quickly being a star as many believe he will be… The Reds have to find a way to retain him. How invigorating would that be to the fanbase? To building sustained success and a winning culture?
I’m begging the Reds to prove me wrong but when the Reds continually repeat their stance and then follow through on them, I’m left believing the simplest explanation. For over a year I have seen the Reds quietly reinforce this as their plan moving forward. Plenty of people will chose to ignore these signs and I can’t really blame them for doing so but this is unfortunately not how my dumb brain works. I’ve been very critical of ownership’s teardown of the team and incessant claims they simply can’t afford to compete, but I have also been open to see where this all ends up.
The players play for the owner, the name on the front of the jersey, but the team exists because the fans are invested in the names on the back. What happens to any fanbase when most fans can’t be bothered to care about which jersey they are going to buy or who their favorite player is? I don’t really want to find out. My fear is that there is more than one generational talent in the current crop of young players, and we will only see them in a Reds uniform for 1/3 of their careers. These types of players are ones that will lead to the sustained success that we hear the Reds want to achieve. You win a World Series with these players on your team and not them being traded to another while you bask in the prospects you obtained. I watched the ownership waste the career of one of the best Reds in history and I’m not interested in seeing them not even try on the next franchise defining players. And so, I’m left waiting to eat my words and to be proven an absolute blithering idiot. Nothing would make me happier.
It’s Opening Day. I will drive all of this to the back of my mind and enjoy baseball. The future starts today. Go Reds!
Too long. Don’t care.